by
David
Becker/Getty
Images)
Though
Iran
and
Israel
have
never
exactly
been
on
friendly
terms,
the
conflict
between
the
two
nations
had
quieted
significantly
until
last
Friday,
when
Israel
launched
major
attacks
against
nuclear
and
military
infrastructure
in
Tehran.
Iran
retaliated.
As
of
Tuesday
afternoon,
at
least
224
people
in
Iran
and
24
people
in
Israel
had
been
killed.
Donald
Trump,
in
turn,
launched
a
series
of
media
statements
and
social
media
posts.
“I’m
not
looking
at
a
ceasefire,”
the
president
told
reporters
aboard
Air
Force
One.
“We’re
looking
at
better
than
a
ceasefire.”
When
asked
to
elaborate,
Trump
indicated
that
his
proposed
solution
might
involve
Iran
“giving
up
entirely”
and
added,
“I’m
not
too
much
in
the
mood
to
negotiate.”
Later,
in
a
social
media
post
directed
at
Iran’s
leader,
the
president
demanded
Iran’s
“UNCONDITIONAL
SURRENDER.”
Israel
is
justifying
its
attacks
on
the
basis
of
Iran
moving
increasingly
closer
to
developing
a
nuclear
weapon.
Trump
himself
stated
(once
again
on
his
own
cash-grab
social
media
platform),
“Somebody
please
explain
to
kooky
Tucker
Carlson
that,
‘IRAN
CAN
NOT
HAVE
A
NUCLEAR
WEAPON!’”
You
might
recall
that
an
extensive,
years-long
negotiation
conducted
by
the
Obama
administration
resulted
in
a
multinational
deal
with
Iran
that
was
indeed
aimed
at
preventing
Iran
from
acquiring
a
nuclear
weapon.
Trump
unilaterally
backed
out
of
this
deal
in
2018
during
his
first
term,
calling
it
“a
horrible
one-sided
deal
that
should
have
never,
ever
been
made”
without
any
real
substantive
criticisms
of
its
terms
beyond
the
fact
that
it
came
about
during
the
tenure
of
his
predecessor.
Meanwhile,
the
stock
market
melted
down
after
the
outbreak
of
hostilities
on
Friday.
Monday,
though,
saw
a
huge
market
rally
amid
signals
that
Iran
wanted
to
negotiate
-–
Wall
Street
got
in
early
this
time
on
the
TACO
trade,
assuming
that
all
it
would
take
to
get
the
United
States
on
board
with
a
peace
plan
was
a
marginally
cooperative
adversary
and
the
hinted
appearance
of
a
quick
win
for
Trump.
The
euphoria
did
not
last,
however,
as
traders
grimly
absorbed
news
of
a
second
American
aircraft
carrier
headed
toward
the
Middle
East
as
well
as
dozens
of
additional
military
jets
being
positioned
within
striking
distance
of
Iran.
The
stock
market
tanked
anew
on
Tuesday.
Again
and
again,
Trump
has
made
big
threats
and
big
promises,
then
chickened
out
when
he
saw
the
kind
of
punishment
the
markets
would
inflict
on
him
for
following
through.
This
approach,
pathology,
whatever
you
want
to
call
it,
has
not
worked
out
so
badly
in
certain
instances.
For
example,
when
Trump
replaced
the
North
American
Free
Trade
Agreement
between
the
U.S.,
Canada,
and
Mexico
with
the
USMCA
during
his
first
term,
making
mostly
cosmetic
changes
but
claiming
a
big
win
after
chickening
out
on
his
original
threat
to
scrap
NAFTA
entirely,
everything
was
more
or
less
fine
afterward.
Big
threats
absent
real
leverage
then
almost
immediately
backing
down
has
not
worked
so
well
for
Trump
in
other
instances.
When
Trump
started
a
global
trade
war
earlier
this
year,
he
quickly
declared
a
truce
on
the
most
ridiculous
of
his
tariffs
to
salvage
the
markets,
but
even
after
months
of
negotiations
and
repeated
declarations
by
Trump
himself
of
historic
“deals,”
we
are
worse
off
than
when
we
started.
China
has
more
leverage
than
the
United
States
when
it
comes
to
trade,
it
has
a
leader
who
is
willing
to
follow
through,
and,
to
quote
from
the
third
installment
of
the
“Back
to
the
Future”
series,
it
knows
that
Trump’s
tough
talk
is
no
more
than
“hot
air
from
a
buffoon.”
Trump
will
not
be
able
to
negotiate
us
into
a
better
trade
position
with
China.
Now,
consider
that
in
dealing
with
the
Israel-Iran
conflict,
we
are
not
talking
merely
about
shipping
products
around
the
world:
we
are
talking
about
people’s
very
lives.
Every
bomb
dropped
in
war
creates
more
new
enemies
than
it
kills,
making
it
very
difficult
to
simply
pull
the
plug
and
walk
away
once
one
nation
attacks
another.
Trump
is
going
to
chicken
out
on
Iran
at
some
point.
The
market
dip
on
Tuesday
was
the
dawning
realization
that
by
the
time
he
is
ready
to
chicken
out,
this
time,
he
might
no
longer
be
able
to.
If
that
happens,
we
will
all
have
far
bigger
things
to
worry
about
than
the
stock
market.
Jonathan
Wolf
is
a
civil
litigator
and
author
of Your
Debt-Free
JD (affiliate
link).
He
has
taught
legal
writing,
written
for
a
wide
variety
of
publications,
and
made
it
both
his
business
and
his
pleasure
to
be
financially
and
scientifically
literate.
Any
views
he
expresses
are
probably
pure
gold,
but
are
nonetheless
solely
his
own
and
should
not
be
attributed
to
any
organization
with
which
he
is
affiliated.
He
wouldn’t
want
to
share
the
credit
anyway.
He
can
be
reached
at [email protected].