by
Win
McNamee/Getty
Images)
I
suggested last
week that,
between
now
and
the
beginning
of
summer,
President
Donald
Trump
will
declare
victory
in
Iran,
end
most
of
the
military
operations,
and
move
on
to
his
next
manufactured
crisis. Trump
could
thus
claim
another
victory
and
not
worry
about
that
nasty
little
war
handing
Democrats
the
midterms. (Other
things
might
yet
hand
the
Democrats
the
midterms,
but
not
the
war.)
We
thus
know
in
advance
that
the
war
will
end
in
victory
for
us,
and
we
know
when
it
will
end,
and
who
cares
about
Iran,
anyway?
On
reflection,
there
are
two
flies
in
this
ointment.
First,
there’s
the
enriched
uranium
fly. Iran
possesses
about
900
pounds
of
enriched
uranium,
which
could
be
made
into
about
10
nuclear
weapons.
What
do
you
do
about
that
stuff
when
you
declare
that
the
war
is
over
and
our
troops
are
coming
home?
If
the
mullahs
manage
to
hold
power
in
Iran,
the
continued
existence
of
enriched
uranium
means
that
Iran
would
remain
able
to
manufacture
nukes
pretty
quickly.
Why
did
we
go
to
war
anyway?
And
if
Iran
collapses
into
sectarian
violence
or
a
failed
state,
the
enriched
uranium
becomes
yet
more
threatening.
Doesn’t
the
U.S.
have
to
do
something
about
the
enriched
uranium?
You
could
bomb
it,
I
suppose,
which
would
result
in
a
contaminated
conventional
bomb
site
(not
a
nuclear
explosion),
but
you
wouldn’t
be
sure
that
you’d
eliminated
the
entire
stockpile.
You
could
decide
to
engage
U.S.
(or
Israeli)
ground
troops
in
Iran,
fighting
their
way
to
Isfahan,
or
Fordow,
or
Natanz,
or
wherever
the
uranium
might
be
today.
But
the
Israelis
might
decline
to
accept
this
task,
and
this
is
the
sort
of
American
commitment
that
Trump
doesn’t
want
to
make
(and
for
which
he
would
pay
a
high
political
price).
Or
you
could
do
a
Venezuela-style
midnight
raid,
sending
in
the
Delta
Force
to
extract
the
900
pounds
of
uranium
under
cover
of
darkness.
But
the
Iranians
know
that
this
type
of
raid
is
likely,
expect
it
to
happen
within
the
next
few
weeks
or
months,
and
are
surely
prepared
for
it.
That’s
not
the
kind
of
Delta
Force
action
that
I’d
like
to
be
involved
in
(for
reasons
beyond
even
the
obvious
ones
of
my
competence,
age,
and
cowardice).
Hmmm.
…
Maybe
Trump
has
to
negotiate
after
all.
The
second
fly
in
the
Iranian
ointment
is
the
Strait
of
Hormuz.
Suppose
Trump
announces
that
the
United
States
has
won
and
the
war
is
over.
Suppose
the
Iranians
say,
“Thank
you
very
much. We’re
pleased
to
hear
that. But
we’re
still
not
letting
oil
pass
through
the
Strait
of
Hormuz. Global
gas
prices
are
high,
and
they’re
heading
higher.”
Protecting
traffic
through
the
Strait
over
Iran’s
objection
would
be
both
terribly
expensive
and
only
partially
effective. Even
with
American
escorts,
the
near-certainty
that
Iran
would
occasionally
destroy
ships
passing
through
the
Strait
would
keep
the
cost
of
insuring
shipments
high
and
the
number
of
shipments
low.
Given
the
location
of
the
Strait,
and
how
narrow
it
is,
the
only
way
to
eliminate
the
Iranian
threat
(without
Iran’s
acquiescence)
may
be
to
send
in
ground
troops
to
protect
the
shores
surrounding
the
Strait.
Again,
that’s
precisely
the
kind
of
war
that
Trump
doesn’t
want.
Hmmm.
…
Maybe
Trump
has
to
negotiate
with
the
Iranians
after
all.
I
don’t
see
any
“unconditional
surrender”
by
Iran
any
time
soon.
And
the
possibility
of
Trump
declaring
victory
and
bringing
home
the
troops
is
a
little
trickier
than
I
originally
thought.
Instead,
the
parties
may
have
to
agree
to
a
ceasefire
and
then
negotiate
about
what
Iran
would
do
to
safeguard
the
enriched
uranium
and
open
the
Strait
of
Hormuz
in
exchange
for
the
United
States
easing
sanctions
or
doing
something
else
to
help
Iran.
Trump
will
surely
declare
victory,
no
matter
the
outcome.
But
isn’t
he
going
to
look
like
a
loser
at
the
end
of
this
mess?
Mark Herrmann spent
17
years
as
a
partner
at
a
leading
international
law
firm
and
later
oversaw
litigation,
compliance
and
employment
matters
at
a
large
international
company.
He
is
the
author
of The
Curmudgeon’s
Guide
to
Practicing
Law and Drug
and
Device
Product
Liability
Litigation
Strategy (affiliate
links).
You
can
reach
him
by
email
at [email protected].