BEIRUT
—
Amid
the
conflict
in
Iran,
oil
production
facilities
and
shipping
lanes
—
namely
the
Strait
of
Hormuz
—
have
been
targeted,
disrupting
economies
both
locally
and
globally.
Exports
like
liquefied
natural
gas
from
Qatar
and
the
United
Arab
Emirates,
along
with
oil
from
Kuwait,
Bahrain,
Saudi
Arabia
and
the
UAE
have
seen
total
or
partial
interruptions,
Kristian
Coates
Ulrichsen,
fellow
for
the
Middle
East
at
Rice
University’s
Baker
Institute,
told
Breaking
Defense. The
interruptions
come
in
part
from
attacks
on
Ras
Laffan
in
Qatar,
which
decreased
the
country’s
LNG
exports
by
17
percent,
per
BBC,
and
attacks
on
the
Strait
of
Hormuz,
through
which
more
than
20
percent
of
the
world’s
oil
and
LNG
pass,
according
to
the
US
Energy
Information
Administration.
“Damage
to
critical
energy
infrastructure
is
another
factor
that
has
risen
considerably
and,
in
Qatar’s
case,
will
be
costly
both
in
terms
of
the
cost
of
repair
and
foregone
revenues
from
the
planned
expansion
of
LNG
output,
which
was
set
to
come
onstream
later
this
year
and
next
year,”
Ulrichsen
said.
These
disruptions
have
also
caused
economic
effects
across
the
globe
including
an
increase
in
US
gas
prices
of
over
a
dollar
per
gallon
from
last
month.
Such
economic
disruptions
are
likely
to
have
an
impact
on
the
national
budgets
for
several
Gulf
nations,
but
experts
told
Breaking
Defense
the
nature
of
the
threat
means
one
industry
in
particular
will
likely
be
spared
from
any
cost
cutting:
defense.
“Defense
spending
may
go
up
rather
than
down
and
will
as
a
matter
of
urgency
be
reassessed
to
better
focus
on
the
challenges
of
a
drawn-out
conflict
that
now
face
the
Gulf
States,”
Ulrichsen
said.
Ulrichsen
and
others
said
spending
should
only
increase
especially
when
it
comes
to
capabilities
to
counter
attacks
on
energy
infrastructure
in
the
future.
“To
counter
these
[Iran’s]
asymmetric
threats,
Gulf
states
are
compelled
to
accelerate
military
modernization,
prioritizing
advanced
air
defenses
like
Patriot
and
THAAD
upgrades,”
Retired
Kuwaiti
air
force
Col.
Zafer
Al
Ajami
told
Breaking
Defense.
“This
strategic
pivot
necessitates
fiscal
reallocation;
non-essential
public
projects,
social
subsidies,
and
welfare
expansions
may
face
significant
cuts
to
preserve
space
for
defense
spending.”
As
part
of
that
investment,
Sascha
Bruchmann,
a
research
fellow
for
defense
and
military
analysis
at
the
International
Institute
for
Strategic
Studies
explained
that
Gulf
nations
will
have
to
also
focus
on
replenishing
missile
defense
capabilities.
He
added
that
“military
spending
will
also
look
closer
at
c-UAV
solutions
that
are
battle-proven
and
effective.
It
was
a
trend
at
shows
and
in
academic
discussions
over
the
past
years,
but
many
governments
failed
to
truly
implement
at
scale.”
The
focus
on
air
defenses
could
mean
shifting
investments
away
from
tanks
and
other
heavy
armored
vehicles,
Bahrain-based
strategic
expert
and
political
researcher
Abdullah
Al
Junaid
noted.
“We
may
also
[see
a]
beef
up
of
ISR
(integration
of
aerial
components
and
naval
forces).
The
Desert
Shield
Forces
role
may
change
to
a
more
robust
force
to
address
future
threats
as
a
rapid
deployment/crisis
containment,”
he
told
Breaking
Defense.
(Desert
Shield
Forces
is
the
US
and
international
coalition
deployed
to
Saudi
Arabia
in
1990
to
aid
Kuwait
in
stopping
the
Iraqi
invasion.)
But
an
increase
in
defense
spending
isn’t
a
guarantee
of
security,
Kristian
Alexander,
senior
fellow
at
the
United
Arab
Emirate-based
Rabdan
Security
and
Defence
Institute,
said.
“Effectiveness
increasingly
depends
on
integration,
coordination,
and
the
ability
to
sustain
defense
operations
under
prolonged
pressure.
In
doing
so,
Gulf
states
are
adapting
to
a
security
environment
in
which
economic
infrastructure
is
as
much
a
target
as
military
assets,
and
where
the
ability
to
absorb
and
mitigate
attacks
is
becoming
just
as
important
as
the
ability
to
deter
them,”
he
said.