Food Security Outlook: Favorable 2025 harvest drives delays in typical onset of lean season, October 2025 – May 2026

Key
Messages

• 
  Crisis
  (IPC
  Phase
  3)
  outcomes
  are
  expected
  to
  emerge
  in
  November
  across
  many
  typical
  deficit-producing
  areas in
  Matabeleland
  North
  and
  South,
  Masvingo,
  Midlands
  and
  Manicaland
  provinces,
  and
  the
  far
  northern
  parts
  of
  the
  Mashonaland
  provinces.Own-produced
  food
  stocks
  this
  year
  are
  likely
  to
  last
  longer
  than
  typical
  following
  the
  above-average
  2025
  harvest,
  driving
  a
  delayed
  onset
  of
  the
  lean
  season.
  As
  households
  exhaust
  food
  from
  their
  own
  production
  and
  become
  market
  dependent
  with
  below-average
  purchasing
  power,
  moderate
  food
  consumption
  deficits
  will
  emerge. In
  early
  2026,
  Crisis
  (IPC
  Phase
  3)
  outcomes
  are
  expected
  to
  expand
  in
  deficit-producing
  areas
  and
  to
  a
  few
  typical
  surplus-producing
  areas.
• 
  Seasonal
  improvements
  in
  acute
  food
  insecurity
  are
  most
  likely
  countrywide
  in
  April
  and
  May
  2026
  with
  Stressed
  (IPC
  Phase
  2)
  and
  Minimal
  (IPC
  Phase
  1)
  outcomes
  driven
  by
  the
  2026
  harvest. The
  forecast
  average
  2025/26
  rainfall
  is
  expected
  to
  support
  crop
  and
  livestock
  production
  and
  income
  from
  agricultural
  labor.
  The
  most
  likely
  2026
  above-average
  harvest
  will
  mark
  a
  second
  consecutive
  favorable
  harvest.
• 
  The
  areas
  of
  highest
  concern
  are
  the
  worst-off
  typical
  deficit-producing
  areas
  facing
  Crisis
  (IPC
  Phase
  3)
  outcomes. Worst-off
  areas
  include
  locations
  impacted
  by
  the
  poor
  performance
  of
  the
  2024/25
  rainfall
  season,
  which,
  combined
  with
  late
  planting
  resulted
  in
  a
  short
  growing
  season
  and
  poor
  maturation
  of
  crops,
  reduced
  crop
  yields.
  In
  the
  south,
  excessive
  rainfall
  also
  negatively
  affected
  crop
  production.
  Typical
  income
  sources
  such
  as
  labor,
  self-employment,
  petty
  trade,
  and
  remittances
  are
  expected
  to
  be
  below
  typical
  levels,
  as
  is
  the Mopane worm
  (Gonimbrasia
  belina) harvest.
• 
  Food
  assistance
  needs
  are
  expected
  to
  increase
  through
  the
  peak
  of
  the
  January
  to
  March
  2026
  lean
  season. Overallfood
  assistance
  needs
  are
  expected
  to
  be
  at
  near-average
  levels,
  though
  lower
  than
  the
  atypically
  high
  El-Niño-induced
  needs
  during
  the
  last
  2024/25
  lean
  season.
  Thereafter,
  food
  assistance
  needs
  are
  expected
  to
  declinewith
  the
  availability
  of
  the
  2026
  harvest.

Post
published
in:

Agriculture