Recent
efforts
by
President
Emmerson
Mnangagwa
to
reset
relations
with
the
United
States
and
the
internal
political
rift
that
seems
to
be
developing
between
Mnangagwa
and
Vice
President
Constantine
Chiwenga
raise
questions
about
Zimbabwe’s
future.
Compounding
these
political
uncertainties
is
the
dire
economic
situation
that
has
left
many
Zimbabweans
destitute.
Considering
the
many
challenges
that
Zimbabwe
faces,
the
landscape
of
Zimbabwe’s
future
is
uncharted
territory.
Resetting,
or
Upsetting,
Diplomatic
Relations?
In
April,
Mnangagwa
announced
that
he
would suspend
tariffs on
goods
imported
from
the
United
States
to
build
a
positive
relationship
with
President
Donald
Trump’s
administration.
This
is
a
significant
shift
in
Zimbabwe’s
diplomatic
strategy.
Historically,
the
US-Zimbabwe
relationship
has
been
tense,
marked
by sanctions and
political
estrangement.
Given
the
transactional
nature
of
the
Trump
Administration,
Mnangagwa’s
overtures
could
potentially
lead
to
a
thaw
in
relations,
opening
avenues
for
economic
assistance
and
investment,
especially
in
the
minerals
sector.
Zimbabwe
reportedly
sits
on seventeen
rare
earth
elements widely
used
in
automobiles,
electronic
devices,
and
military
technology. China’s
current
dominance of
Zimbabwe’s
mining
industry
makes
the
potential
of
US
access
to
the
minerals
mentioned
above
an
attractive
prospect.
However,
Mnangagwa’s
overtures
to
the
United
States
risk
alienating
Zimbabwe’s
traditional
Southern
African
Development
Community
(SADC)
allies.
The
delicate
balance
between
pursuing
new
diplomatic
relations
while
maintaining
regional
solidarity
is
a
critical
challenge
to
Mnangagwa’s
administration.
There
is
also
the
danger
of blowback
from
China.
While
trade
between
the
United
States
and
Zimbabwe
is
negligible,
amounting
to
less
than
$100
million
annually,
China
is
one
of
Zimbabwe’s
largest
trade
partners,
with
exports
of
$1.3
billion
last
year.
China
has
invested
heavily
in
significant
infrastructure
development
in
Zimbabwe
in
the
past
two
decades.
China
also
offers
tariff-free
exports
from
Zimbabwe,
while
the
Trump
administration
has
yet
to
respond
to
Mnangagwa’s
olive
branch.
With
Zimbabwe’s
current
economic
situation,
losing
China’s
support
could
be
catastrophic.
Internal
Power
Struggles
The growing
rift between
Mnangagwa
and
Chiwenga
adds
another
layer
of
complexity
to
Zimbabwe’s
political
dynamics.
Chiwenga,
who
played
a
pivotal
role
in
Mnangagwa’s
rise
to
power
following
the
coup
that
ousted
long-time
President
Robert
Mugabe,
has
shown
signs
of
discord
with
the
current
president.
At
the
Zimbabwe
African
National
Union
–
Popular
Front
(ZANU–PF)
party
conference
in
December
2024,
officials
loyal
to
Chiwenga
were
blocked
from
attending,
and
Mnangagwa
loyalists
forced
through
a
resolution
calling
for
a
constitutional
amendment
that
would
allow
Mnangagwa
to
hold
on
to
power
beyond
2028
when
his
second
term
ends.
The
rift
threatens
to
destabilize
ZANU–PF
and
undermine
governmental
unity.
The
struggle
for
power
within
the
party
could
lead
to
heightened
political
tensions
and
potential
shifts
in
leadership.
The
worst-case
scenario
is
that
the
military,
which
is
Zimbabwe’s
ultimate
power
broker,
could
intervene
as
they
did
in
2017
when
they
ousted
Mugabe,
plunging
the
country
even
deeper
into
political
chaos.
The
Threat
to
Regional
Relations
Mnangagwa’s
pivot
towards
improving
relations
with
the
United
States
has
raised
concerns
about
Zimbabwe’s
position
within
SADC.
The
regional
organization,
a
critical
Zimbabwe
support
system,
might
view
these
overtures
with
suspicion.
Balancing
international
diplomacy
with
regional
commitments
is
essential
for
Zimbabwe
to
maintain
its
influence
and
support
within
SADC.
The
outcome
of
any
perceived
betrayal
or
shift
in
allegiance
could
be
substantial,
impacting
Zimbabwe’s
economic
aid,
trade
agreements,
and
regional
solidarity.
The
damage
has
already
been
done,
and
if
Trump
rebuffs
or
ignores
Mnangagwa’s
peace
offering,
Zimbabwe
could
find
itself
isolated.
Holes
in
Zimbabwe’s
Market
Basket
Zimbabwe
is
currently
facing
a
wide
range
of
economic
issues,
from
an
unstable
currency
to
massive
unemployment
and
poverty.
Zimbabwe’s
economy
is
in
disarray,
with
currency
instability
a
significant
issue.
The
country’s
reliance
on
multiple
currencies,
including
the
US
dollar
and
the
South
African
rand,
has
not
stabilized
the
economic
environment.
Hyperinflation
and
a
lack
of
confidence
in
the
local
currency
exacerbate
the
financial
upheaval.
The
government’s
attempts
to
introduce
a
new
currency
have
been
met
with
skepticism,
as
memories
of
past
currency
failures
remain.
The
economic
crisis
has
led
to
soaring
unemployment
and
pervasive
poverty.
Many
Zimbabweans
are
forced
to
struggle
for
basic
necessities,
and
the
disparity
between
the
wealthy
elite
and
the
impoverished,
always
a
point
of
contention,
is
now
Grand
Canyon-wide
and
continues
to
grow.
Once
the
backbone
of
the
economy,
the
agricultural
sector
has
been
devastated
by
land
reforms
and
mismanagement,
leading
to
food
insecurity
and
reduced
agricultural
output.
Mnangagwa’s
outreach
to
the
United
States
could
open
doors
for
economic
aid
and
investment,
potentially
alleviating
some
of
Zimbabwe’s
economic
woes.
However,
this
is
a
risky
strategy
that,
if
it
fails,
could
further
destabilize
a
fragile
economy.
Building
trust
with
international
investors
and
ensuring
transparency
in
economic
policies
are
essential
steps
for
Zimbabwe
at
this
juncture
to
attract
foreign
investment
and
support.
What
are
the
Social
Implications?
The
economic
crisis
has
had
a
severe
impact
on
healthcare
and
education.
Hospitals
and
clinics
are
underfunded
and
lack
essential
supplies,
leading
to
a
decline
in
the
delivery
of
healthcare
services.
The
education
system
faces
significant
challenges,
including
inadequate
funding,
teacher
shortages,
and
deteriorating
infrastructure.
These
issues
contribute
to
a
continuing
cycle
of
poverty
and
limit
opportunities
for
future
generations.
As
has
happened
in
previous
economic
and
political
crises,
Zimbabweans
have
been
seeking
better
opportunities
outside
the
country.
With
skilled
professionals
leaving
the
country,
this
brain
drain
further
weakens
the
economic
and
social
services.
This
loss
of
human
capital
is
a
critical
issue
that
Zimbabwe
must
address
if
it
is
to
rebuild.
What
Might
the
Future
Hold?
Zimbabwe’s
political
future
depends
heavily
on
resolving
the
internal
power
struggles
within
ZANU–PF
and
maintaining
a
balanced
diplomatic
approach.
If
Mnangagwa
can
navigate
these
challenges
successfully,
there
is
potential
for
political
stability.
However,
if
the
country
is
to
achieve
long-term
stability,
it
is
essential
to
strengthen
democratic
institutions
and
promote
inclusive
governance.
Economic
recovery
will
be
even
more
daunting.
It
will
require
comprehensive
strategies
that
address
currency
stability,
unemployment,
and
poverty.
Engaging
with
international
partners
for
financial
aid
and
investment
will
be
crucial,
while
ensuring
transparency
and
accountability.
Revitalizing
the
agricultural
sector
and
promoting
industrialization
can
provide
sustainable
economic
growth
and
employment
opportunities.
Balancing
outreach
to
the
United
States
with
maintaining
strong
SADC
ties
is
vital
to
Zimbabwe’s
future.
Solidifying
regional
alliances
while
pursuing
broader
international
relations
can
provide
Zimbabwe
with
a
multifaceted
approach
to
economic
and
political
development.
Ensuring
diplomatic
outreach
to
international
partners
without
compromising
Zimbabwe’s
position
in
SADC
will
be
crucial.
Social
development
and
long-term
economic
stability
will
require
investments
in
healthcare
and
education.
Zimbabwe
must
also
address
the
root
causes
of
migration
and
brain
drain
by
improving
living
conditions
and
providing
opportunities
within
the
country
to
retain
skilled
professionals.
Fostering
social
cohesion
and
unity
is
critical
for
rebuilding
the
country.
Zimbabwe
is
at
a
crossroads,
with
its
future
shaped
by
complex
political
and
economic
dynamics.
Mnangagwa’s
overtures
to
Trump,
the
internal
rift
with
Chiwenga,
and
the
dire
financial
situation
pose
significant
challenges.
With
strategic
diplomatic
efforts,
comprehensive
economic
recovery
plans,
and
focused
social
development
initiatives,
it
is
possible
for
Zimbabwe
to
navigate
these
turbulent
waters
and
sail
towards
a
stable
and
prosperous
future.
The
country’s
resilience
and
determination
will
be
key
to
overcoming
its
many
obstacles
and
forging
a
smooth
path
forward.
-
About
the
author:
Charles
A.
Ray,
a
member
of
the
Board
of
Trustees
and
Chair
of
the
Africa
Program
at
the
Foreign
Policy
Research
Institute,
served
as
US
Ambassador
to
the
Kingdom
of
Cambodia
and
the
Republic
of
Zimbabwe. -
Source:
This
article was
published
at
FPRI
Post
published
in:
Business