by
Win
McNamee/Getty
Images)
Everyone
says
that
we
don’t
know
how
the
war
in
Iran
will
end.
Nonsense. We
know
exactly
how
the
war
will
end. We
even
know
when
it
will
end.
But
let’s
start
at
the
beginning. As
the
war
begins,
reporters
foolishly
ask
three
questions.
First,
they
ask
a
supposedly
hard
question
for
Democrats: “Do
you
feel
safer
now
than
you
did
a
week
ago,
when
Ali
Khamenei
was
ruling
Iran?”
It’s
not
so
hard: Of
course
we
feel
safer
now. The
U.S.
got
rid
of
an
evil
man.
Second: “So
that
means
you’re
happy
with
how
the
war
is
going
so
far?”
Again,
not
so
hard: Of
course
we’re
happy
with
how
the
war
is
going
so
far. Generally,
when
the
United
States
enters
a
war
of
choice
with
another
country,
things
go
swimmingly
for
the
first
few
days. How
were
you
feeling
about
the
war
in
Afghanistan
for
the
first
week
or
two,
when
B-52’s
were
bombing
the
hell
out
of
the
Taliban
and
the
Northern
Alliance
had
them
on
the
run? How
were
you
feeling
about
the
war
in
Iraq
for
the
first
week
or
two,
when
American
troops
were
on
a
fast
track
to
Baghdad
and
the
Iraqis
were
putting
up
essentially
no
resistance?
We
always
feel
great
for
the
first
week
or
two. Ask
again
next
year. Or
next
decade.
Finally,
a
supposedly
tough
question
for
Republicans: “Will
the
United
States
deploy
ground
troops
in
Iran?”
The
only
answer
that
a
senior
official
can
give
to
this
question
publicly
is: “I
haven’t
ruled
out
the
use
of
ground
troops.”
This
is
common
sense. You
never
tell
the
enemy
the
limits
of
your
strategy.
You
never
rule
out
any
possible
escalation. You
absolutely
must
be
noncommittal
when
asked
about
ground
troops,
even
knowing
that
tomorrow’s
headline
will
be,
“Trump
[or
Hegseth,
or
whomever]
Declines
to
Rule
Out
Use
of
Ground
Troops!”
At
the
same
time,
everyone
in
the
United
States
knows
to
a
moral
certainty
that
the
U.S.
will
never
deploy
ground
troops
in
Iran. Trump
promised
no
“forever
wars”;
the
American
public
opposes
deploying
ground
troops;
the
Republican
party
knows
(as
does
Trump
himself)
that
deploying
ground
troops
would
hand
the
midterm
elections
to
the
Democrats.
So: (1) Trump
and
Hegseth
won’t
rule
out
the
possibility
of
deploying
ground
troops
and
(2) No
ground
troops
will
be
ever
deployed.
Finally,
you
know
exactly
how
this
war
will
end.
Pundits
are
saying
that,
“No
one
knows
how
the
war
in
Iran
will
end.”
Silly
pundits.
No
one
knows
how
the
war
in
Iran
will
end on
the
Iranian
side.
Everyone
knows
how
the
war
in
Iran
will
end on
the
American
side.
The
war
in
Iran
will
be
over
from
the
American
side
no
later
than
June
1.
Period.
From
the
American
side,
the
war
might
end
tomorrow,
or
next
week,
or
in
May,
but
I
guarantee
that
it
will
be
over
by
June
1. If
the
war
were
to
continue
into
June,
then
it
would
begin
to
influence
the
midterm
elections. The
Republicans
(and
Trump)
will
not
run
that
risk. The
war
will
be
over
(for
our
side)
no
later
than
May
31.
Also,
Donald
Trump
will
declare
victory
on
the
day
the
war
ends. Trump
never
loses
anything. (See,
for
example,
the
2020
election.) Nothing
involving
Trump
ever
plays
to
a
draw. Trump
always
wins.
So
Trump
will
say
that
he
won
the
war
in
Iran.
If
a
hardline
regime
remains
in
power
in
Iran,
then
Trump
will
say
that
he
killed
Khamenei. That
was
his
goal
all
along. The
regime
—
that
is,
Khamenei
personally
—
was
eliminated. Mission
accomplished. We
won
the
war.
If
the
war
has
accomplished
a
little
more
than
that,
so
much
the
better. We
put
in
place
people
slightly
less
radical
than
Khamenei,
or
whatever.
Trump
won.
The
one
thing
that
will
not
have
been
happened
by
June
1
is
for
us
to
have
any
idea
about
how
the
war
in
Iran
will
end
from
Iran’s
perspective.
How
could
we
possibly
know? What
did
Afghanistan’s
future
look
like
three
months
after
the
United
States
attacked?
What
did
Iraq’s
future
look
like
three
months
after
the
American
invasion?
What
did
Libya’s
future
look
like
three
months
after
Gaddafi
fell?
Three
months
into
this
war,
the
lingering
elements
of
this
regime
may
be
holding
power. The
elements
of
some
other
regime
may
be
trying
to
establish
power. Iran
may
have
broken
out
into
civil
war. Kurdish
troops
may
be
running
wild
in
the
streets
of
Tehran. The
country
may
have
collapsed
into
sectarian
violence. It
may
be
obvious
that
Iran
has
become
a
failed
state
(with
stockpiles
of
enriched
uranium
lying
around
unprotected).
We
don’t
know
how
this
war
will
end
from
Iran’s
perspective.
But
we
certainly
know
how
it
will
end
from
our
perspective: The
U.S.
government
will
announce
that
major
military
operations
have
ended. Trump
will
declare
victory. Sean
Hannity
(and
the
rest
of
the
MAGA
lickspittles)
will
explain
that
Trump
was
a
genius,
and
that
we
live
in
the
best
of
all
possible
worlds. (Why
wait,
Sean? Just
make
that
announcement
now,
and
save
time.)
Many
on
the
left
will
of
course
insist
on
the
opposite: Iran
was
never
an
immediate
threat
to
us. Too
many
lives
were
lost. Too
little
was
achieved
at
too
great
a
cost.
But
please
don’t
tell
me
that
there’s
some
question
about
how
this
war
will
end.
From
our
perspective,
you
know
not
only
how,
but
even
when,
the
war
will
be
over.
Before
summer
arrives,
we’ll
be
able
to
make
the
announcement:
Congratulations,
America!
You
won!
Mark Herrmann spent
17
years
as
a
partner
at
a
leading
international
law
firm
and
later
oversaw
litigation,
compliance
and
employment
matters
at
a
large
international
company.
He
is
the
author
of The
Curmudgeon’s
Guide
to
Practicing
Law and Drug
and
Device
Product
Liability
Litigation
Strategy (affiliate
links).
You
can
reach
him
by
email
at [email protected].