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Zimbabwe by-elections are attracting huge crowds, but don’t read too much into them – The Zimbabwean

Zimbabwe’s
opposition
Citizens
Coalition
for
Change
supporters
attend
an
election
campaign
rally
in
Harare,
in
February.
Zimbabwe,
20
February.

EPA-EFE/Aaron
Ufumeli


James
Muzondidya
,


University
of
Zimbabwe

and

Munyaradzi
Mushonga
,


University
of
the
Free
State

Zimbabwe’s
national
assembly
has

270
parliamentarians

of
which
210
are
elected.
The
60
additional
parliamentarians
are
brought
into
the
house
through
a
quota
system
reserved
for
women.

The
28
parliamentary
and
105
local
government
council
seats
that
are
up
for
grabs
in
these
by-elections
were
left
vacant
due
to
recalls
and
deaths
of
representatives.
The
empty
seats
constitute
13.3%
of
Zimbabwe’s

210
elective
parliamentary
seats
.
The
council
positions
represent

5.4%
of
the
1,958
local
government
seats
.

Parliament
is
currently
overly
dominated
by
members
of
the
governing
Zimbabwe
African
National
Union
Patriotic
Front
(ZANU
PF).
The
election
of
new
parliamentarians
will
bring
new
voices.

The
polls
were
initially
due
to
take
place
in
December
2020
but
were

postponed

because
of
the
COVID-19
pandemic.

The
by-elections
have
attracted
huge
national
and
regional
focus.
They
will
give
communities
that
have
gone
without
representation
for
almost
two
years
a
chance
to
choose
their
candidates.
They
also
provide
an
opportunity
for
the
youthful
and
charismatic
Nelson
Chamisa
the
chance
to
showcase
the
party
he
recently
rebranded
after
breaking
away
from
the
leading
opposition
party,
the
Movement
for
Democratic
Change
(MDC).
This
followed
a

bitter
leadership
struggle

after
the
death
of
its
founder
Morgan
Tsvangirai
in
February
2018.

Chamisa

raised
the
political
stakes

by
leaving
the
original
party
and
rebranding
his
political
grouping
to
the
“Citizens
Coalition
for
Change”
at
the
end
of
January
2022.

Hopes
for
the
opposition

Twenty
of
the
28
parliamentary
seats
being
contested

71.4%


became
vacant

after
the
controversial
recall
of
the
representatives
by
a
faction
of
the
Movement
for
Democratic
Change
party
led
by
Douglas
Mwonzora
between
May
and
October
2020.

The
significance
of
these
by-elections
is
also
evident
from
the
way
the
two
main
parties,
ZANU-PF
and
Citizens
Coalition
for
Change,
have
invested
huge
human
and
financial
resources
in
organising
campaign
rallies
across
the
country.

Rallies
have
attracted
huge
crowds
and
ignited
political
excitement
in
the
country.
They
have
also
fuelled
speculation
that
the
2023
national
elections,
due
in
less
than
a
year,
will
be
a
tight
political
contest
between
the
two
main
parties.
Some
even
say
Citizens
for
Coalition
for
Change
poses
an

existential
threat
to
ZANU-PF
.

The
by-elections

have
even
been
described

as
a
dress
rehearsal
for
the
2023
elections
which
some
think
could
be
a
watershed
poll.

There
are

wide
expectations

that
Zimbabwe’s
opposition
will
be
able
to
build
on
its
earlier
successes
and
capitalise
on
the
deteriorating
political
and
economic
conditions
in
the
country
to
break
ZANU-PF’s
authoritarian
control
since
1980.

There
are,
nevertheless,
some
caveats.

Need
for
circumspection

It’s
important
not
to
exaggerate
the
impact
of
the
poll.

First,
it
is
unlikely
that
the
huge
public
turnout
at
the
rallies
is
going
to
translate
into
a
huge
voter
turnout.
That’s
partly
because
by-elections
in
Zimbabwe
have
always
had
a
low
voter
turnout.
For
example,
the
2018
general
election
showed
a
very
low
turnout.
In
some
areas,

not
even
a
quarter
of
the
registered
voters

showed
up.

Second,
political
violence

has
spoiled
Zimbabwe’s
elections

since
1980,
and
even
more
so

since
2000
.
This
is
likely
to
dissuade
some
voters
from
turning
up.

Most
recently,
there
have
been
clashes
between
ZANU-PF
and
Citizens
Coalition
for
Change
supporters
in
the
mining
town
of
Kwekwe
on
27
February
2022.
One

person
was
killed
and
ten
injured
.

Since
then,
media
and
human
rights
watchdog
reports
have

noted

that
some
supporters
and
leaders
of
Citizens
Coalition
for
Change
have
been
violently
attacked
by
ZANU-PF
and
state
security
agencies.
This
has
included
including
candidates
for
the
by-elections.

The
violence
could
deter
voters
on
election
day.

Third,
evidence
from
recent
surveys
suggest
that
Zimbabweans
have
become
more
politically
disengaged
since
the
2018
elections.
An
example
is

one
done
in
June
by
the
independent
pan-African
network
Afrobarometer
.
Instead,
they’re
turning
their
focus
on
economic
survival
in
the
deteriorating
economy.

The
International
Republican
Institute’s
survey
on
public
perceptions
of
local
government

of
October
2021

also
shows
an
increase
in
citizen
apathy
towards
political
parties
and
community
leaders.
This
is
especially
so
for
local
government
councillors
and
members
of
parliament,
due
to
loss
of
trust
in
representative
leadership.
The
growing
trust
deficit
is
strongly
linked
to
increased
corruption
and
irresponsible
leadership
among
parliamentary
and
local
officials.

Fourth,
a
growing
number
of
Zimbabweans
are
losing
confidence
in
elections
as
a
mechanism
for
bringing
leadership
change
at
both
national
and
local
levels.
This
is
mainly
because
of

strong
allegations
of
electoral
fraud

and
the

growing
list
of
disputed
election
results
since
2000
.

The
disillusionment
is
fuelling
voter
apathy.
Most
citizens
feel
that
it
is
pointless
to
vote
because
it
won’t
change
anything.

Fifth,
attendance
at
political
rallies
cannot
be
taken
as
an
indicator
of
likely
voter
turnout.
Most
people
who
attend
rallies

don’t
necessarily
turn
out
to
vote
.

Evidence
from
past
elections
indicates
that
crowd
size
is
frequently
not
a
good
indicator
of
success
on
election
day.
Attendance
of
rallies
is
often
motivated
by

different
factors
.
These
include
a
range
of
incentives
on
offer,
such
as
free
music
entertainment,
alcohol,
food,
t-shirts
and
other
items
of
clothing.
All
are
absent
on
election
day.

And
most
people
who
have
been
attending
campaign
rallies,
especially
in
urban
areas,
are
young.
But
a
significant
proportion
of
Zimbabwean
youth

most
of
whom
are
unemployed
and
frustrated
with
the
current
political
and
economic
status
quo

are
still
not
registered
as
voters.
Analysis
conducted
by
Pachedu
(a
group
of
data
experts
that
has
been
analysing
the
Zimbabwe
Voters
Roll
since
2018)
showed
that
in
2018,
39%
of
Zimbabweans
aged
between
18
and
34

were
not
registered
and
nearly
50%
eligible
young
voters
didn’t
vote
.

The
Zimbabwe
Electoral
Commission
recently
pointed
out
that

only
2,971
new
voters

registered
countrywide
in
2021,
and
that

just
under
50
000

people
registered
during
the
Commission’s
registration
blitz
conducted
in
January
and
February
2022.

For
all
these
challenges,
the
upcoming
poll
cannot
be
dismissed.
Coming
a
few
months
before
the
country
goes
for
the
2023
national
elections,
the
elections
create
an
opportunity
for
electoral
stakeholders,
including
political
parties,
the
electoral
management
body,
security
sector
agencies,
civil
society
and
citizens,
to
review
opportunities
and
challenges
ahead
of
the
milestone
elections.

The
elections
are
coming
at
a
time
when
the
country,
which
has
been
experiencing
political
and
economic
crisis
for
the
last
two
decades,
is
going
through
its

worst
crisis
since
2007-2008
,
with
unemployment
and
poverty
soaring
and
political
divisions
worsening.

A
peaceful
and
credible
election
is
needed
to
restore
political
and
economic
normalcy
in
the
country.The Conversation


James
Muzondidya
,
Part-time
Lecturer,
African
History
and
Politics,


University
of
Zimbabwe

and

Munyaradzi
Mushonga
,
Senior
Lecturer
and
Programme
Director
for
Africa
Studies
in
the
Centre
for
Gender
and
Africa
Studies,


University
of
the
Free
State

This
article
is
republished
from

The
Conversation

under
a
Creative
Commons
license.
Read
the

original
article
.

Post
published
in:

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