HARARE
–
Zimbabwe
Defence
Forces
commander
Phillip
Valerio
Sibanda
is
set
to
leave
the
post
on
November
23
at
the
expiry
of
his
contract,
which
was
extended
by
a
year
by
President
Emmerson
Mnangagwa.
Sibanda,
who
turns
71
in
December,
has
led
Zimbabwe’s
armed
forces
since
2017.
He
replaced
Constantino
Chiwenga,
who
became
vice
president
after
leading
the
military
coup
that
ousted
Robert
Mugabe.
His
reappointment
last
year
sparked
controversy,
with
lawyers
arguing
that
the
statutory
retirement
age
is
70.
Mnangagwa’s
decision
to
revive
an
already
expired
term
was
“flawed”
and
an
“absurdity,”
they
said.
A
ceremony
is
planned
for
November
24
to
mark
Sibanda’s
exit,
but
both
his
future
role
and
his
successor
remain
uncertain.
There
has
been
speculation
that
Sibanda
could
be
elevated
to
the
vice
presidency,
but
without
a
vacancy
Mnangagwa
would
need
to
remove
either
Chiwenga
or
his
other
deputy,
Kembo
Mohadi,
to
accommodate
him.
Precedent
would
suggest
that
Zimbabwe
National
Army
commander
Lieutenant
General
Emmanuel
Matatu
–
appointed
only
in
March
–
would
succeed
him.
But
at
72,
well
past
retirement
age,
Matatu
could
also
be
heading
for
the
exit.
That
scenario
would
open
the
way
for
Major
General
Walter
Tapfumaneyi,
appointed
chief
of
staff
in
May
after
leaving
his
post
as
deputy
director
general
of
the
Central
Intelligence
Organisation.
A
wildcard
prospect
is
Gatsha
Mazithulela,
the
former
CIO
deputy
director
general
and
chemical
scientist
now
serving
as
the
president’s
drug
tzar.
Unlike
Tapfumaneyi,
Mazithulela
is
not
a
career
soldier
but
could
be
elevated
for
his
administrative
strengths.
He
previously
served
as
vice
chancellor
of
the
National
University
of
Science
and
Technology.
The
changing
of
command
at
the
apex
of
Zimbabwe’s
military
is
never
a
routine
administrative
matter.
Since
independence
in
1980,
the
armed
forces
have
been
deeply
intertwined
with
the
politics
of
the
ruling
Zanu
PF,
functioning
not
just
as
a
security
institution
but
as
one
of
the
central
levers
of
political
power.
Senior
commanders
have
openly
declared
they
would
not
salute
anyone
without
liberation-war
credentials,
a
position
that
has
shaped
national
politics
for
more
than
two
decades.
The
military
has
also
played
an
outsized
role
in
elections,
frequently
accused
by
opposition
parties
and
civil
society
of
voter
intimidation,
mobilising
ruling
party
structures
and
directing
state
institutions
behind
the
scenes.
In
2008,
the
military
intervened
after
the
late
opposition
leader
Morgan
Tsvangirai
defeated
Mugabe
in
the
first
round
of
presidential
voting,
triggering
a
violent
runoff
that
forced
Tsvangirai
to
withdraw.
The
2017
coup
that
removed
Mugabe
cemented
the
military’s
status
as
kingmaker,
with
generals
proclaiming
their
takeover
a
defence
of
the
revolution
and
the
ruling
party.
Since
then,
Mnangagwa’s
authority
has
rested
partly
on
maintaining
the
loyalty
and
balance
of
competing
military
factions.
Control
of
the
command
structure
is
central
to
managing
Zanu
PF’s
succession
battles.
Some
analysts
say
Mnangagwa
has
sought
to
sideline
generals
perceived
as
loyal
to
Chiwenga,
who
opposes
a
plan
by
the
president’s
loyalists
to
force
through
constitutional
amendments
and
extend
his
term
beyond
2028.
The
choice
of
Sibanda’s
successor
–
and
the
political
alliances
they
bring
–
will
have
ramifications
not
only
for
the
military’s
internal
balance
but
for
Zimbabwe’s
wider
political
direction
as
Zanu
PF
edges
towards
its
elective
congress
in
2027
and
general
elections
in
2028.