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Dangote’s Big Gamble: A Billion-Dollar Return to Zimbabwe

For
Mnangagwa’s
government,
the
timing
could
not
be
better.
The
deal
aligns
neatly
with
his
Vision
2030
national
development
plan
to
industrialize
Zimbabwe
and
create
jobs.


The
Nigerian
industrial
titan,
Africa’s
richest
man,
came
back
to
Zimbabwe
not
simply
to
tour,
but
to
seal
what
could
be
one
of
the
country’s
largest-ever
private-sector
investments
.
A
decade
earlier,
his
ambitions
had
stalled.
This
time,
the
stage
was
different,
and
so
was
the
script.

Dangote’s
arrival
was
no
secret.
Reports
from
Zimbabwean
media
outlets
in
the
weeks
leading
up
to
his
trip
spoke
of
a
US$1
billion
deal
in
the
making,
covering
cement,
coal
mining,
and
power
generation.
For
a
country
long
hungry
for
industrial
revival,
the
scale
of
commitment
was
breathtaking.
State
officials
carefully
arranged
a
welcome:
he
was
received
not
just
by
senior
bureaucrats
but
by
none
other
than
President
Emmerson
Mnangagwa
himself,
underscoring
how
high
the
stakes
were.

At
a
highly
publicized
signing
ceremony
in
State
House,
Dangote
laid
out
the
plan:
“We
have
just
signed
an
agreement

to
undertake
various
investments
across
several
sectors
including
cement,
power
generation,
and
petroleum
products,”
he
told
journalists,
flanked
by
Zimbabwean
Finance
Minister
Mthuli
Ncube.
The
scale
of
the
project
was
formidable,
a
fully
integrated
industrial
complex
that
would
include
a
cement
factory
with
its
own
limestone
quarry
and
grinding
plant,
a
coal
mine,
and
a
power
station.

Yet
the
vision
stretched
even
further.
According
to
Deputy
Chief
Secretary
for
Presidential
Communications
George
Charamba,
the
deal
also
includes
a
transnational
oil
pipeline
running
from
Walvis
Bay
in
Namibia,
across
more
than
2,200
kilometres
to
Zimbabwe.
In
his
words,
this
is
not
just
about
building
factories—it’s
about
reconfiguring
regional
infrastructure.
The
pipeline
would
land
in
Bulawayo
and
continue
to
Harare
via
Gweru,
inserting
Zimbabwe
into
Dangote’s
ambitious
southern
Africa
energy
network.

For
Mnangagwa’s
government,
the
timing
could
not
be
better.
The
deal
aligns
neatly
with
his
Vision
2030
national
development
plan
to
industrialize
Zimbabwe
and
create
jobs. 
Presidential
Investment
Advisor
Dr.
Paul
Tungwarara,
who
helped
facilitate
the
engagement,
spoke
of
the
visit
as
a
long-awaited
opportunity:
“We
are
now
handling
the
final
logistical
preparations

to
ensure
this
engagement
leads
to
tangible,
long-term
investment,”
he
said,
underscoring
that
this
time,
the
government
was
personally
invested
in
turning
talks
into
delivery.

Dangote
himself
was
candid
about
why
he
chose
Zimbabwe
now.
Reflecting
on
his
unsuccessful
previous
attempts
in
2015
and
2018,
he
said:
“There’s
been
quite
a
lot
of
change
between
when
we
came
and
now.
The
government
is
solid

When
you
look
at
what
His
Excellency
has
done
in
turning
the
economy
around,
that
gave
us
the
confidence

this
is
the
right
time
for
us
to
come
and
invest.”
He
framed
his
return
as
a
form
of
national
examination:
“When
you
pass
an
exam

people
have
to
come
and
give
you
a
good
mark.
His
Excellency
has
passed
that
exam

that’s
why
we’re
here

to
give
him
a
very
big
mark.”

The
deal,
as
laid
out,
promises
tangible
benefits
for
Zimbabwe—perhaps
even
transformative
ones.
The
cement
factory
could
reduce
Zimbabwe’s
dependence
on
imports,
saving
the
country
millions
annually
and
feeding
into
its
massive
reconstruction
needs.
The
power
plant,
powered
by
coal,
could
contribute
to
easing
the
country’s
chronic
energy
shortages.
And
the
pipeline,
if
built,
would
not
only
secure
product
flow
but
also
embed
Zimbabwe
into
a
broader
southern
African
energy
corridor.

One
of
the
more
unexpected
but
critical
parts
of
the
agreement
is
in
fertilisers.
Zimbabwean
officials
note
that
Dangote
recognizes
the
country’s
agricultural
potential
and
sees
investment
in
fertiliser
production
as
a
way
to
support
regional
food
security.
By
helping
strengthen
agribusiness,
this
deal
could
boost
Zimbabwe’s
export
competitiveness
and
potentially
create
ripple
effects
through
rural
economies.

Behind
the
scenes,
the
deal
was
carefully
orchestrated.
Local
business
facilitators
played
a
major
role.
Journalist-turned-investment
broker
Josephine
Mahachi
who
was
involved
in
Dangote’s
earlier
attempt
emerged
as
a
key
intermediary.
She
described
her
role
as
“humbling,”
adding
that
the
renewed
engagement
involved
direct
dialogue
with
State
House
through
Tungwarara.
Financial
advisory
firm
Bard
Santner
Markets
Inc.,
led
by
CEO
Senziwani
Sikhosana,
backed
the
negotiations,
showing
how
Zimbabwe’s
financial
sector
is
leaning
into
industrial
diplomacy.

Not
everyone
is
blind
to
the
risks,
though.
Skeptics
note
that
Dangote’s
earlier
Zimbabwe
forays
fell
apart
under
unclear
conditions.
In
2015,
for
instance,
what
appeared
to
be
a
concrete
deal
to
develop
coal-fired
power
collapsed
amid
reports
of
bureaucratic
delays
and
a
lack
of
cost-reflective
tariffs.
There
remains
a
question
of
whether
this
time,
the
structures
will
hold
up
once
the
grand
vision
meets
ground
reality.

Yet,
for
many
Zimbabweans,
Dangote’s
presence
represents
a
vote
of
confidence,
not
only
in
the
Zimbabwean
economy,
but
in
Mnangagwa’s
ability
to
deliver
real
change.
“The
richest
man
in
Africa
is
coming
to
Zimbabwe
at
the
personal
invitation
of
President
Mnangagwa

We
are
keen
to
ensure
that
he
makes
a
significant
investment

and
avoid
what
happened
during
his
previous
visit,”
advised
Tungwarara.
If
Dangote
fulfills
even
half
his
vision
for
Zimbabwe,
it
could
herald
a
new
era:
industrial
growth,
energy
security,
and
real
jobs.
But
for
now,
the
world
watches
as
signs
become
contracts
and
contracts,
if
kept,
become
legacy.

*Culled
from December Issue
of PAV Magazine

Post
published
in:

Business