This
is
the
time
of
year
to
make
predictions.
Who
am
I
to
buck
a
trend?
I
have
one
very
specific
(and
extended)
prediction.
My
prediction
begins
with
the
Supreme
Court
seeing
an
opportunity
in
the
pending
litigation
involving
President
Donald
Trump’s
tariffs.
Trump’s
“liberation
day”
tariffs
are
probably
unlawful. If
the
Supreme
Court
were
to
strike
down
the
tariffs,
that
decision
would
have
the
benefit
of
following
the
law. That’s
good,
for
starters.
But
a
decision
striking
down
the
tariffs
would
do
much
more
than
follow
the
law. Invalidating
the
tariffs
would
also
allow
the
Supreme
Court
to
show
that
it’s
independent,
occasionally
willing
to
defy
Trump. That
would
help
the
court. Invalidating
the
tariffs
also
doesn’t
hurt
Trump
too
much
because
Trump
has
fallback
mechanisms
for
reimposing
similar
tariffs
under
other
laws
if
he’s
dead-set
on
maintaining
tariffs.
Also,
because
Trump
can
reimpose
tariffs,
he’s
unlikely
to
ignore
the
court’s
order,
creating
a
constitutional
crisis.
Instead,
he’ll
use
a
different
route
to
reimpose
the
tariffs. Finally,
striking
down
the
tariffs
would
probably
benefit
Trump
politically: The
tariffs
have
increased
certain
prices
in
the
United
States
and
decreased
employment
(by
creating
uncertainty,
which
reduces
business
investment). By
striking
down
the
tariffs,
the
Supreme
Court
would
probably
be
helping
the
economy.
That’s
not
really
the
way
the
Supreme
Court
thinks.
The
court
actually
does
more
law
and
less
politics
than
I
do,
but
you
see
what
I’m
driving
at.
The
Supreme
Court
will
strike
down
Trump’s
tariffs,
which
might
well
improve
the
economy
and
strengthen
the
Republicans’
hand
in
the
midterm
elections
in
November.
The
court
would
be
doing
Trump
a
favor.
The
next
question
is
whether
Trump
would
accept
the
gift.
I
think
not.
Trump
has
loved
tariffs
his
entire
life. He’s
called
“tariffs”
his favorite
word (although
in
the
1980s
he
wanted
to
impose
tariffs
on
Japan,
rather
than
China). Trump’s
an
old,
stubborn
guy;
I
suspect
he
won’t
change
his
thinking
now.
Trump
also
does
not
like
to
admit
defeat,
as
the
events
of
January
6,
among
other
things,
have
demonstrated. If
the
Supreme
Court
strikes
down
Trump’s
tariffs,
he’ll
choose
another
route
to
reimpose
them. To
do
otherwise
would
be
to
admit
that
the
Supreme
Court
thwarted
him,
and
Trump
could
never
stomach
that.
Trump
also
like
tariffs
for
personal
reasons. Tariffs
give
Trump
the
power
to
rule
the
world. Brazil
is
prosecuting
Jair
Bolsonaro? Impose
tariffs! India’s
buying
Russian
oil? Impose
tariffs! Mexico
and
Canada
aren’t
doing
enough
to
stop
the
flow
of
fentanyl
into
the
United
States? Impose
tariffs!
Unilateral
discretion
to
impose
tariffs
lets
Trump
reward
friends
and
punish
enemies
internationally,
a
vast
expansion
of
his
personal
power. I’m
sure
he
likes
that.
Tariffs
also
make
domestic
companies
come
to
heel. Trump
can
authorize
exemptions
from
tariffs
on
an
individual
basis. Apple
doesn’t
want
tariffs
to
apply
to
its
iPhones? Voila! Apple
just
has
to
cooperate
with
Trump,
and
iPhone
components
are
exempted
from
tariffs.
Trump
loves
the
idea
of
using
government
policy
(tariffs)
as
a
racket
for
extorting
money
from
U.S.
companies. He
won’t
sacrifice
that
power
lightly.
So
Trump
will
use
alternate
routes
to
reimpose
many
of
the
tariffs
that
the
Supreme
Court
strikes
down.
What’s
the
last
piece
of
my
prediction?
Reimposing
tariffs
will
continue
to
hurt
the
economy,
raising
prices
and
decreasing
business
investment. Voters
will
notice
a
stumbling
economy. And
the
Republicans
will
lose
their
majority
in
the
House
of
Representatives
this
November
in
part
because
Trump
will
look
a
gift
horse
in
the
mouth. Instead
of
accepting
defeat
on
the
tariff
issue
and
winning
the
midterms,
he’ll
insist
on
a
tariff
victory
and
thus
suffer
an
electoral
defeat.
Trump
will
win
the
tariff
war,
but
lose
the
House
of
Representatives. A
stable
genius
indeed.
Happy
New
Year!
Mark Herrmann spent
17
years
as
a
partner
at
a
leading
international
law
firm
and
later
oversaw
litigation,
compliance
and
employment
matters
at
a
large
international
company.
He
is
the
author
of The
Curmudgeon’s
Guide
to
Practicing
Law and Drug
and
Device
Product
Liability
Litigation
Strategy (affiliate
links).
You
can
reach
him
by
email
at [email protected].