by
Chip
Somodevilla/Getty
Images)
Well,
folks,
it
looks
like
the
Senate
is
getting
its
confirmation
ducks
in
a
row
—
because
if
Justice
Samuel
Alito
does
finally
decide
to
hang
up
his
robes,
Majority
Leader
John
Thune
wants
you
to
know
they
are
ready.
Thune
told
the
Washington
Examiner
that
Senate
Republicans
are
fully
prepared
to
move
on
a
Supreme
Court
nominee
should
a
vacancy
arise.
“That’s
a
contingency
I
think
around
here
you
always
have
to
be
prepared
for.
And
if
that
were
to
happen,
yes,
we
would
be
prepared
to
confirm,”
Thune
said.
He
further
clarified
that
any
confirmation
vote
would
happen
before
November’s
midterm
elections,
which,
given
the
political
stakes,
makes
all
the
sense
in
the
world.
But
let’s
back
up,
because
none
of
this
happens
without
Alito
actually
walking
out
the
door
first,
and
we’ve
been
watching
that
particular
slow-motion
drama
unfold
here
at
Above
the
Law
for
months
now.
The
retirement
speculation
really
got
legs
back
in
February,
when
The
Nation‘s
Elie
Mystal
published
a
piece
laying
out
the
Alito
retirement
case
methodically.
(Alito’s
forthcoming
book,
So
Ordered:
An
Originalist’s
View
of
the
Constitution,
the
Court,
and
the
Country,
is
set
to
drop
on
October
6,
the
day
after
the
Supreme
Court’s
2026-27
term
begins.
You
know…
right
when
justices
get
stuck
in
D.C.
hearing
oral
arguments,
making
it
a
strange
choice
for
a
book
tour.
Unless,
of
course,
you
don’t
plan
to
be
hearing
oral
arguments.)
That
framing
caught
fire,
and
the
speculation
has
been
building
ever
since.
CNN’s
Joan
Biskupic
later
reported
that
Alito
has
been
pondering
stepping
down,
and
it’s
well
known
that
his
wife,
Martha-Ann,
is
eager
for
him
to
retire,
as
she
acknowledged
in
a
surreptitiously
taped
conversation
at
a
Supreme
Court
event.
Meanwhile,
prediction
markets
have
the
odds
of
an
Alito
retirement
before
the
end
of
the
year
at
above
50
percent
—
Kalshi
at
50.6
percent
and
Polymarket
at
53
percent.
What’s
particularly
interesting
is
Mystal’s
original
read
on
why
Alito
would
retire
now,
if
he
does,
and
it
maps
almost
perfectly
onto
the
political
urgency
animating
Thune’s
comments.
As
Mystal
wrote,
“Alito
watches
TV.
He
reads
the
papers.
With
Republican
poll
numbers
flagging,
I
don’t
think
he
wants
to
roll
the
dice
and
be
forced
to
hang
around
on
the
court
should
Republicans
lose
the
Senate
this
fall.
I
think
he’s
leaving
while
Republicans
still
have
the
political
power
to
replace
him
with
another
Sam
Alito
who
is
30
years
younger.”
That’s
the
throughline
here,
and
it’s
worth
dwelling
on
for
a
moment.
Because
right
now,
the
GOP
holding
the
Senate
is
not
exactly
a
sure
thing.
Kalshi
traders
currently
price
Democrats
as
the
slight
favorites
to
retake
the
Senate,
with
the
most
likely
single
outcome
being
Democratic
control
of
both
chambers,
a
scenario
traders
assign
a
50%
probability.
History
is
not
kind
to
the
incumbent
party
at
midterms
under
the
best
of
circumstances,
and
2026
is
not
the
best
of
circumstances.
An
unpopular
trade
war
hammering
consumers,
gas
prices
climbing,
and
an
economy
that
has
rattled
markets
badly
enough
to
give
everyone
2008
flashbacks
they
didn’t
ask
for
is
not
exactly
the
formula
for
a
rousing
midterm
defense.
Which
means
if
Alito
is
indeed
reading
the
papers,
he’s
seeing
the
same
numbers
everyone
else
is
seeing.
The
window
to
get
a
reliable
conservative
confirmed
is
open
right
now.
Thune
is
essentially
signaling
the
same
thing
from
the
other
end
of
Pennsylvania
Avenue:
we
are
ready,
come
on
down.
Whether
that
quiet
urgency
is
landing
at
One
First
Street
is,
for
now,
anyone’s
guess.
Now,
here’s
where
things
get
truly
entertaining.
Even
as
Thune
is
publicly
declaring
readiness,
Politico
reports
that
Senate
Republicans
haven’t
actually
started
having
serious
conversations
within
the
conference
about
the
logistics
of
a
confirmation
battle.
Which,
hilarious.
But
perhaps
the
most
delicious
detail
in
all
of
this
is
who
may
be
at
the
front
of
the
line
if
Trump
gets
to
pick
another
justice:
Senator
Ted
Cruz
of
Texas.
According
to
Politico,
Cruz
may
be
a
frontrunner
for
the
nod.
And
Trump
himself
floated
the
idea
during
a
stop
in
Texas
earlier
this
year,
joking
that
Cruz
would
get
unanimous
support
from
his
Senate
colleagues.
And
honestly,
the
reasoning
is
fucking
spot
on
—
as
Trump
put
it,
“they
want
to
get
him
out
of
there.”
A
Senator-to-Supreme-Court
pipeline
is
not
unheard
of
(Hugo
Black,
for
example)
but
the
notion
that
Cruz’s
colleagues
would
be
thrilled
to
confirm
him
to
a
lifetime
appointment
primarily
as
a
means
of
removing
him
from
their
daily
lives
is
a
level
of
petty
legislative
calculus
that
feels
very
on-brand
for
this
particular
moment
in
American
politics.
One
does
wonder
whether
“unanimous
support”
would
survive
the
actual
confirmation
hearings,
but
that’s
a
problem
for
another
news
cycle.
Republicans
currently
hold
53
seats
in
the
Senate,
and
Supreme
Court
confirmations
require
only
a
simple
majority,
meaning
Trump
would
have
a
comfortable
margin
to
confirm
a
nominee
without
needing
any
Democratic
votes.
So
the
math
works…
for
now.
Whether
the
will
is
truly
there,
whether
Alito
actually
walks
out
the
door
before
the
midterms,
and
whether
Ted
Cruz
ends
up
trading
one
high-profile
job
for
another
remains
to
be
seen.
But
the
Senate,
at
least
officially,
is
ready.
Kathryn
Rubino
is
a
Senior
Editor
at
Above
the
Law,
host
of
The
Jabot
podcast,
and
co-host
of
Thinking
Like
A
Lawyer.
AtL
tipsters
are
the
best,
so
please
connect
with
her.
Feel
free
to
email
her
with
any
tips,
questions,
or
comments
and
follow
her
on
Twitter
@Kathryn1 or
Mastodon
@[email protected].