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‘Watt’s’ The Problem – The Energy Demands Behind AI – Above the Law

Smart
city
and
communication
network
concept.

Generative
AI
is
the
game-changing
technology
of
the
decade,
and
the
race
is
on
to
build
better
systems. 
Whether
it’s
Agentic
AI
where
applications
perform
tasks
and
have
access
to
the
Internet,
or
just
a
better
reasoning
model,
the
scaling
for
massive
everyday
usage
is
the
prize.

One
of
the
limiting
factors
to
scaling
is
computing
power. 
This
is
why
Nvdia’s
stock
has
catapulted
in
the
past
few
years. 
Nvidia
manufactures
the
leading
graphical
processing
units
(GPUs)
that
process
the
arrays
of
information
needed
to
operate
large
language
models.
Shortages
in
computing,
coupled
with
the
geopolitical
concerns
about
dependencies
on
China
and
Taiwan,
triggered
the
passage
of
the

CHIPS
and
Science
Act

in
2022
to
stimulate
more
research
and
manufacturing
of
semiconductors
in
the
United
States.


Energy
is
another
limiting
factor

A
new
limiting
factor
is
slowly
making
it
to
the
headlines,
and
that
is
the
need
for
energy
to
power
all
of
these
AI
applications
in
the
cloud.
 While
it
may
not
seem
like
much,
a
Google
search
requires
about
.3
watt
hours
of
energy
to
complete
a
search,
but
with
over

5
trillion
Google
searches
a
year

(150,000/second),
that
adds
up.

It
is
reported
that

ChatGPT
uses
approximately
10
times
more
energy

per
interaction
than
a
Google
search.
 As
AI
usage
becomes
commonplace
and
replaces
traditional
search,
an
image
of
Clark
Griswold’s
holiday
light
display
in
the
movie
Christmas
Vacation
comes
to
mind.
When
the
display
was
turned
on,
the
lights
dimmed
in
the
entire
town.
Imagine
a
big
news
story
hits,
and
consumer
interest
metaphorically
dims
the
lights
around
a
datacenter.

Google’s
energy
usage
in
2023
was
nearly

26
Terawatt
hours
,
which
is

larger
than
all
but
75
countries
.
Microsoft
and
Amazon’s
power
consumption
is
on
a
similar
scale,
but
Amazon
does
not
disclose
its
energy
consumption.

AI
models
are
energy-hungry
and
will
drive
increased
cloud
computing
consumption.
Data
centers
worldwide
consumed
roughly
1.5%
of
global
electricity,
and
that
number
is
projected
to
double
by
2030.
AI
is
going
to
become
a
significant
energy
user
behind
the
scenes.

Make
no
mistake,
access
to
energy
is
strategic
for
companies
scaling
AI,
especially
Microsoft,
Amazon,
Apple,
Meta,
and
Alphabet/Google,
collectively
referred
to
as
“MAAMA.”

It
is
also
strategic
for
the
United
States
to
continue
to
lead
in
the
advancement
of
AI.   

The
current
administration
has
recently
announced
executive
orders
regarding
the
expansion
of
nuclear
energy,
which
will
support
the
growing
demand
for
energy,
including
that
driven
by
artificial
intelligence. 
But
this
thirst
has
been
quietly
growing
for
years.


Bonneville
Power
and
the
Columbia
River

The

Bonneville
Power
Administration

markets
power
from
31
federal
dams
and
a
nuclear
plant
in
Washington,
operating
15,000+
miles
of
transmission
from
Portland,
Oregon,
into
Idaho.


Microsoft,
Amazon,
and
Google

quietly
inked
long-term
deals
with
the
Bonneville
Power
Administration
back
in
2017,
linking
data
centers
to
the
hydroelectric
plants
along
the
Columbia
River
in
Eastern
Washington.


Three
Mile
Island
and
Microsoft

Constellation
Energy
cut
a
deal
with
Microsoft
in
September
2024
(during
the
prior
administration)

to
reopen
the
Three
Mile
Island

nuclear
power
plant
near
Harrisburg,
PA.

The
20-year
power
purchase
agreement
will
revive
the
mothballed
reactor
at
Three Mile Island
by
2028. 
Microsoft
will
benefit
from
the
835
Megawatts
of
power,
which
would
be
enough
to
power
700,000
to
800,000
homes.

Nuclear
energy
provides
a
carbon-free,
reliable
source
of
energy
for
AI
workloads
that
require
a
consistent
supply
of
power.
Microsoft
is
betting
that
this
relic
will
serve
its
power
needs
and
its
green
credentials.


Amazon’s
green
energy
initiatives

Amazon
has
announced
that
it
has
offset
its
energy
consumption
through
the

production
of
renewable
energy

Amazon
has

invested

“billions
of
dollars”
in
over
500
wind
and
solar
projects
across
27
countries
which,
collectively,
can
generate
energy
sufficient
to
power
7.6
million
homes
in
the
U.S.


Looking
through
the
legal
and
regulatory
lens

The
reality
is
that
energy
demand
is
increasing,
and
this
growth
is
being
driven
by
AI
and
cloud
computing
technology
rather
than
direct
consumer
demand. 
Business
interests,
geopolitical
competition
in
technology,
and
environmental
considerations
create
a
new
mix
of
regulatory,
policy,
and
political
considerations
for
energy.
 Expect
strange
bedfellows
and
shifting
narratives. 

Energy
policy
is
now
partially
leaning
on
a
legacy
nuclear
capability
to
bridge
near-term
gaps
in
growing
energy
demand. 
Restarting
a
reactor
tied
to
one
of
America’s
worst
nuclear
accidents
for
Microsoft
is
a
proof
point
of
the
new
dynamics
at
play.


Regulatory
and
policy
considerations

As
legal,
regulatory,
and
policies
evolve,
look
for
more
headlines
in
the
future
around:

  • Public
    utilities
    being
    used
    for
    private
    businesses
    at
    the
    possible
    expense
    of
    local
    needs
  • More
    private
    generation
    of
    energy
  • Shifting
    views
    on
    water
    rights,
    environmental
    considerations,
    and
    land
    rights
  • Greenwashing

    highlighting
    benefits
    of
    sustainability
    when
    other
    actions
    aren’t
    “green”
  • More
    strains
    on
    an
    aging
    power
    grid
    that
    could
    cause
    rationing
    or
    brownouts
  • Interdependencies
    with
    geopolitical
    goals,
    like
    de-risking
    the
    semiconductor
    industry
    (or
    interplay
    with
    tariffs)


Summary

The
growth
in
AI
computing
is
going
to
drive
electricity
demands.
The
“MAAMA”
businesses
operate
on
a
massive
scale
and
are
central
to
the
United
States’
technology
leadership. 
Expect
narratives
to
evolve
as
new
approaches
emerge
to
meet
the
growing
demand
for
energy.

Note:
AI
assistance
was
used
in
the
drafting
of
this
article.




Ken
Crutchfield
has
over
forty
years
of
experience
in
legal,
tax,
and
other
industries.
Throughout
his
career,
he
has
focused
on
growth,
innovation,
and
business
transformation. His
consulting
practice
advises
investors,
legal
tech
startups
and
others.
As
a
strategic
thinker
who
understands
markets
and
creating
products
to
meet
customer
needs,
he
has
worked
in
start-ups
and
large
enterprises.
He
has
served
in
General
Management
capacities
in
six
businesses.
Ken
has
a
pulse
on
the
trends
affecting
the
market.
Whether
it
was
the
Internet
in
the
1980s
or
Generative
AI,
he
understands
technology
and
how
it
can
impact
business.
Crutchfield
started
his
career
as
an
intern
with
LexisNexis
and
has
worked
at
Thomson
Reuters,
Bloomberg,
Dun
&
Bradstreet,
and
Wolters
Kluwer.
Ken
has
an
MBA
and
holds
a
B.S.
in
Electrical
Engineering
from
The
Ohio
State
University.