Is
it
possible
that
inflation
will
be
the
big
issue
in
2026?
Inflation
was
certainly
a
big
issue
in
2024,
and
it
played
against
the
Democrats. Might
inflation
now
play
against
the
Republicans?
I’m
thinking
primarily
of
the
price
of
essentials: food
and
electricity. I
suspect
that
the
price
of
food
will
go
up
noticeably
between
now
and
the
middle
of
next
year. The
Trump
administration
is
deporting
people
left
and
right. Many
of
those
people
are
farmworkers. If
you
get
rid
of
a
lot
of
farmworkers,
one
of
two
things
happens: Either
vegetables
rot
in
the
fields
or
farmers
pay
more
to
attract
employees
to
harvest
the
crop.
If
vegetables
are
unnecessarily
rotting,
prices
are
going
up. If
farmers
are
paying
more
to
harvest
the
crop,
prices
are
going
up.
Inflation.
At
the
same
time,
Trump
is
imposing
massive
tariffs
on
food
that
we
import
from
other
countries. Trump
is,
for
example,
charging
about
a 17%
tariff on
Mexican
tomatoes. He’s
imposing
a 50%
tariff on
beef
from
Brazil. He’s
even
imposed
a
15%
tariff
on
French
wines,
although,
in
less
trying
times,
wine
is
not
quite
as
essential
as
tomatoes
and
beef.
These
tariffs
are
foolish
—
we’re
not
protecting
essential
American
industries
by
raising
the
price
of
food
—
but
that’s
not
my
point. The
combination
of
deporting
the
farm
workforce
and
imposing
tariffs
on
imported
food
is
basically
guaranteed
to
inflate
grocery
prices
over
the
coming
six
months.
Couple
that
with
a
likely
increase
in
electricity
prices. Demand
for
energy
is
skyrocketing. Training
artificial
intelligence
models
requires
running
thousands
of
processors
to
perform
complex
computations
for
weeks
or
months. This
massive
demand
for
electricity
is
already
straining
the
grid,
and
the
boom
in
artificial
intelligence
is
just
starting. The
Trump
administration
is
simultaneously
doing
everything
possible
to
strangle
new
sources
of
energy. Trump
has
suspended
issuing
permits
for
wind
and
solar
projects
on
public
land. He’s
eliminated
investment
tax
credits
that
previously
supported
alternative
energy
sources. And
the
Interior
Department
now
engages
in
burdensome,
multilevel
reviews
of
new
alternative
energy
projects,
delaying
the
approval
process.
You
can
“drill,
baby,
drill”
as
much
as
you
like,
but
it’s
hard
to
replace
the
renewable
energy
sources
that
have
accounted
for
much
of
the
recent
growth
in
electric-generating
capacity.
If
I’m
right,
and
the
cost
of
both
food
and
electricity
is
about
to
increase,
won’t
this
become
a
political
issue? And
shouldn’t
Democrats
be
delighted?
After
all,
Trump
made
the
price
of
eggs
a
huge
issue
in
the
2024
campaign,
proposed
no
policies
that
might
actually
reduce
those
prices,
and
won
office. Democrats
could
note
the
increased
cost
of
essentials
and
actually
propose
policies
that
would
change
things
—
eliminate
tariffs
on
food
(at
least),
restore
sanity
to
the
deportation
process,
and
revive
government
support
for
renewable
energy.
That
is,
quite
literally,
a
kitchen-table
issue.
It
should
play
with
all
but
the
very
rich,
who
are
basically
immune
to
price
increases.
Perfect!
But
Democrats
must
then
avoid
alienating
swing
voters
who
probably
disagree
with
the
far
left
on
social
issues.
Don’t
insist,
as
Democrats
did
during
the
primaries
in
2020,
that
America
should
essentially
have
open
borders.
Instead,
agree
with
Republicans
that
a
country
must
control
its
borders
and
criticize
only
the
way
in
which
Trump
has
gone
about
deporting
innocent
multitudes
without
due
process.
Don’t
insist
that
boys
who
have
passed
puberty
should
be
allowed
to
transition
and
then
compete
in
girls’
sports.
Instead,
explain
that
we
should
not
discriminate
against
anyone
but,
for
reasons
of
fairness,
we
simply
cannot
permit
biological
males
to
compete
against
biological
females.
In
this
situation,
we
must
discriminate
against
either
women
or
trans
women,
depending
on
what
we
decide.
On
this
one
issue,
trans
women
lose.
Don’t
insist,
as
Democrats
did
in
2020,
that
we
should
defund
the
police.
People
don’t
like
crime;
talk
about
ways
to
improve,
rather
than
starve,
law
enforcement.
If
economics
holds
true,
food
(and
energy)
prices
should
be
shooting
up
like
a
cornstalk
next
summer.
Democrats
should
focus
on
that
nonpartisan
pocketbook
issue
in
an
effort
to
win
back
the
House
of
Representatives.
Mark Herrmann spent
17
years
as
a
partner
at
a
leading
international
law
firm
and
later
oversaw
litigation,
compliance
and
employment
matters
at
a
large
international
company.
He
is
the
author
of The
Curmudgeon’s
Guide
to
Practicing
Law and Drug
and
Device
Product
Liability
Litigation
Strategy (affiliate
links).
You
can
reach
him
by
email
at [email protected].